Just 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as his coach scolded him for not reading a pass in behind. During that period, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After the England international swept in his second strike to restore his side's advantage, Emery tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough question to address. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the positive results have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a team that have put together 10 in a row, Villa look strangely fragile – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened in London, and again when facing the Red Devils.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction may well be the biggest rival the club will encounter in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the force he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers now would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
